Graphics: Courtesy NOAA.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its most recent 2026/27 U.S. Winter Outlook, giving us a glimpse into what national forecasters are predicting for this upcoming winter season and how El Niño will likely influence the U.S. from December 2026 to February 2027.
Forecasters at NOAA said that “warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across the northern U.S., with wetter-than-average conditions likely across the southern U.S.” They also noted that these wetter-than-average conditions expected for the southern U.S. could improve drought conditions for the majority of the country, “including areas in the East, Southern Great Plains and Southwest.”
“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.”
So, what does that mean for Idaho?
Warmer-than-average temperatures are currently favored for the inland Northwest. According to the seasonal temperature outlook for December 2026 to February 2027, the Treasure Valley has a 33 to 40% chance of seeing above-average temperatures, with the lower Treasure Valley and West Central Idaho mountains sitting at a 40-50% chance of above-average temperatures. I do want to note that these maps (shown above) indicate probability, not intensity.
The seasonal precipitation outlook for December 2026 to February 2027 shows equal chances of precipitation for the inland northwest, with the exception of drier-than-average conditions possible for the Idaho panhandle, portions of northeastern Idaho, and almost the entirety of Montana, leaning between 33-50% below normal.
A drought outlook for the U.S. is also included in the NOAA outlook report, dated for Oct. 15, 2026, to January 31, 2027. You can view the map here.
“Drought conditions are favored to develop or worsen across parts of the northern Rockies, along with northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington,” according to forecasters with the NOAA.
While forecasters didn’t specifically mention Idaho, the seasonal drought outlook map shows the entirety of Idaho taking the short end of the stick as far as potential drought impacts. A majority of the state is set to see drought worsen in areas already impacted or for drought to develop in areas where it was not present. A large swath of southern Idaho is the only region of the Gem State expected to see drought remain unchanged through the winter season, according to NOAA data.
For now, forecasters are watching and will release their next update on November 19. And we here at BoiseDev will be keeping you updated as winter comes into clearer view.
